Heat Stress Beyond Heat Waves. How Heat Can Kill our Jobs and the Economy

In India, heat waves have claimed over 24,000 lives since 1992. Long-term predictions indicate that, by 2050, heatwaves in India could breach the limit at which a healthy individual can withstand in the shade, resulting in detrimental impacts on labour efficiency, economic development, and the quality of life for around 310–480 million people. “Over 90% of the country faces extreme caution or dangerous levels of harm to adaptive livelihood capacity, food grain yield, the spread of vector-borne diseases, and urban sustainability due to heat stress”, according to a study in the journal PLOS Climate.

Heat is hurting us and - our jobs

Extreme heat has the most severe impact on individuals who rely on outdoor work to earn a daily income, such as street vendors, construction and agricultural labourers, traffic police, and those who lack consistent access to electricity and home cooling, limiting their ability to mitigate prolonged heat stress. More significantly, around 75% of India's labour force is engaged in “heat-exposed” sectors, and these sectors account for roughly 50% of the nation's GDP. Extreme heat exposure for workers can lead to work-related illnesses, heightened injury risks, and reduced productivity due to natural responses like decreased work pace, more frequent and extended breaks, or shorter working hours. According to the World Bank, India could represent 34 million of the estimated 80 million worldwide job losses resulting from reduced productivity due to heat stress by 2030.

Agricultural Yields Compromised

The repercussions of extreme heat extend beyond labour and urban life; they significantly impact agriculture. The global impact of a heat wave leads to crop losses worldwide. High temperatures hinder plant growth through heat stress, a key factor limiting crop production.  Urban areas, in particular, experience significant agricultural losses due to escalating temperatures. As per a report by World Weather Attribution (WWA), heat waves in March and April reduced India's wheat crop yield by 10 to 30% in 2022. Early heatwaves, caused by reduced rainfall and fewer western disturbances, negatively affected wheat crops in northwest India. As pera note seen by Reuters, "Loss of production of wheat, all India basis, more or less stands around 6%, on account of shrivelling of wheat grains around 20% due to terminal heat and heat waves,".  Furthermore, in 2021, the intense heat in India and Pakistan resulted in reduced crop yields which was coupled with India's ban on wheat exports and restrictions on rice exports. This situation posed a risk to both international food markets and nations already grappling with staple food shortages.

Widespread economic consequences

The economic consequences of increased heat are staggering. By 2050 and 2100, India is expected to incur losses of 2.8% and 8.7% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), respectively, leading to depressed living standards. These grim predictions underscore the urgency of addressing the impact of heatwaves on India's development goals, particularly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite India's self-reported progress in the SDG India Index (2020-21), significant challenges remain. Rising global temperatures stand to affect all 17 SDGs, as pointed out by the study in the PLOS Climate Journal, emphasising the close link between heatwaves and several SDGs, especially those related to climate action. Notably, India's performance on SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) has notably declined, further exacerbated by the strong interrelation between these two SDGs. Urban sustainability (SDG-11) is acutely affected, as the lack of suitable low-income housing exposes a significant portion of the population to extreme weather events like heat waves

Tackling the pressing issue of heatwaves, with their far-reaching effects on labourers, agriculture, health, and sustainable development, is imperative. India must renew its commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals, emphasising climate action and urban sustainability, while fostering cooperation on both national and international fronts to combat the escalating threat of extreme heat.